Demand Signals Intelligence

McKinsey-style explainability: WHY it matters, WHAT it measures, HOW it works, SO WHAT to do

Internal Signals
6
From company data sources
External Signals
17
Market & economic indicators
Active Signals
21
Currently feeding forecasts
Avg Growth Factor
1.09x
External signal impact

Deterministic Demand

Committed demand from contracts and quotes

2 signals
Deterministic signals represent contractually committed work - the most reliable predictor of near-term demand. Missing these signals means underestimating guaranteed revenue.
What equipment do we KNOW we need in the next 90 days?
Engineering Bill of Materials ENG_BOM Highest SKU-Level
Engineering-approved material lists are the most accurate demand signal
12,500
records
Why It Matters
Engineering-approved material lists are the most accurate demand signal
When engineering signs off on a BoM, it means the project is real, funded, and scheduled. These quantities reflect actual site requirements - not estimates or projections.
Business Impact: BoM-driven demand has 95%+ accuracy vs. 60-70% for pipeline estimates
What It Measures
SKU-level quantities tied to specific project phases
Each BoM line item maps to a specific SKU, quantity, and delivery window. We capture scaffolding components, shoring systems, and forming equipment with exact specifications.
SKU ID Quantity Project Phase Required Date Yard Assignment
How It Works
Direct database sync with 2-hour refresh
BoM items flow from engineering systems into DuckDB. We join with project schedules to time-phase demand into weekly buckets.
Source: DuckDB - bom_items table Frequency: Real-time (2-hour sync) Integration: Feeds directly into forecast floor (minimum demand)
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Use BoM demand as forecast floor - never forecast below committed quantities
Risk if Ignored
Stock-outs on committed projects = penalty costs + customer churn
CPQ / SafeQuote CPQ Highest SKU-Level
Quotes in negotiation are high-probability demand with SKU detail
8,200
records
Why It Matters
Quotes in negotiation are high-probability demand with SKU detail
CPQ quotes represent active sales conversations with specific equipment configurations. Unlike Salesforce pipeline (revenue-level), CPQ has exact SKU breakdowns.
Business Impact: Quotes in "Proposal Sent" stage convert at 45% - too high to ignore, too uncertain to guarantee
What It Measures
Configured equipment lists with pricing and timing
Each quote contains line-item detail: specific scaffolding types, quantities, rental durations, and delivery dates. This is customer-validated demand.
Quote ID Customer SKU Configuration Quantity Start Date Duration
How It Works
Real-time sync from SafeQuote application
Quotes created in SafeQuote are immediately available for forecasting. We track status changes to adjust probability weights.
Source: DuckDB - quotes + bom_items tables Frequency: Real-time Integration: Probability-weighted addition to base forecast
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Weight CPQ demand by quote stage probability and add to deterministic floor
Risk if Ignored
Under-forecasting during quote surge periods = lost revenue

Historical Patterns

Past actuals and trends from operations

2 signals
History is the foundation of statistical forecasting. Seasonal patterns, trend directions, and demand volatility can only be learned from actual usage data.
What does past demand tell us about future patterns?
Historical Actuals HIST_ACTUAL High SKU-Level
Statistical models need history to detect patterns humans miss
1,200,000
records
Why It Matters
Statistical models need history to detect patterns humans miss
Time series models (ARIMA, ETS, XGBoost) learn seasonality, trends, and cyclical patterns from historical data. 2+ years of history enables accurate pattern recognition.
Business Impact: Models trained on rich history achieve 15-20% lower forecast error vs. naive methods
What It Measures
Weekly on-site quantities for every SKU × Yard combination
We track what equipment was actually on-site each week - not what was shipped or invoiced. This reflects true demand after logistics smoothing.
Week Ending Date Yard Number SKU ID Quantity On-Site Product Family
How It Works
Weekly snapshot from inventory systems
Every Sunday at midnight, we capture inventory positions across all yards. This creates a consistent time series for each SKU × Yard combination.
Source: DuckDB - ForecastData table (1M+ rows) Frequency: Weekly snapshot Integration: Primary input to all 8 forecasting models
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Ensure data quality - gaps or anomalies in history corrupt all forecasts
Risk if Ignored
Models learn wrong patterns = systematic over/under forecasting
Yard Inventory Levels YARD_INV High SKU-Level
Current inventory constrains what we can promise customers
450,000
records
Why It Matters
Current inventory constrains what we can promise customers
Forecasting demand is only half the equation. Knowing current stock levels lets us identify gaps between forecasted need and available supply.
Business Impact: Inventory-aware forecasting prevents promising equipment we don't have
What It Measures
Real-time inventory position by SKU and location
Current quantities available, on-rent, in-transit, and under repair. Enables supply-demand gap analysis at granular level.
Yard SKU Available Qty On-Rent Qty In-Transit Repair Status
How It Works
Daily sync from yard management systems
Inventory positions refresh every morning at 6 AM. We maintain history for trend analysis and safety stock calculations.
Source: DuckDB - yard_inventory table Frequency: Daily (6 AM) Integration: Constrains forecast fulfillment recommendations
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Flag SKU × Yard combinations where forecast > available inventory
Risk if Ignored
Accepting orders we can't fulfill = expediting costs + reputation damage

Pipeline Signals

Leading indicators from sales pipeline

2 signals
Pipeline signals provide 30-90 day forward visibility into demand before it becomes committed. Essential for capacity planning and inventory positioning.
What demand is coming that we should prepare for?
Salesforce Pipeline SFDC_PIPE Medium Aggregate
Sales pipeline is the earliest signal of future demand
3,400
records
Why It Matters
Sales pipeline is the earliest signal of future demand
Opportunities in Salesforce represent potential deals 30-180 days out. While uncertain, they provide directional guidance on demand by region and customer segment.
Business Impact: Pipeline-aware forecasting catches demand surges 60-90 days earlier than reactive methods
What It Measures
Revenue forecasts by opportunity with probability weights
Each opportunity has expected revenue, close date, probability, and account info. We don't have SKU detail - only product line and total value.
Opportunity ID Account Amount Close Date Stage Probability Region
How It Works
Hourly sync from Snowflake (Salesforce mirror)
We pull open opportunities from DEV_BRONZE.SALESFORCE, apply probability weights, and disaggregate to SKU level using historical mix ratios.
Source: Snowflake - DEV_BRONZE.SALESFORCE.OPPORTUNITY Frequency: Hourly Integration: Probability-weighted growth factor applied to base forecast
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Use pipeline as directional signal - increase forecasts in regions with hot pipelines
Risk if Ignored
Missing Q2/Q3 turnaround season buildup = scrambling for equipment
Quote-to-Order Conversion Q2O Medium SKU-Level
Not all quotes convert - historical conversion rates improve probability estimates
1,800
records
Why It Matters
Not all quotes convert - historical conversion rates improve probability estimates
We track which quotes became orders to build conversion models by customer type, quote size, and product mix. This refines pipeline probability beyond standard stage-based assumptions.
Business Impact: Data-driven conversion rates are 20-30% more accurate than default stage probabilities
What It Measures
Conversion likelihood scores for active quotes
Each quote gets a conversion probability based on historical patterns: customer history, quote size, product mix, time since creation.
Quote ID Base Probability Adjusted Probability Conversion Factors SKU Mix
How It Works
ML model retrained daily on quote outcomes
Logistic regression model predicts conversion using quote attributes. Applied to open quotes to generate refined probability weights.
Source: Calculated from quotes + orders history Frequency: Daily (1 AM model refresh) Integration: Adjusts CPQ signal weights before aggregation
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Prioritize inventory for high-conversion-probability quotes
Risk if Ignored
Treating all quotes equally = misallocated inventory

Energy & Commodities

Oil, gas, and raw material prices affecting industrial demand

4 signals
BrandSafway's core business is industrial services for refineries, petrochemical plants, and energy facilities. Energy prices directly drive customer capex and maintenance budgets.
Are energy sector customers ramping up or cutting back?
WTI Crude Oil Price WTI_OIL
Oil prices are the #1 driver of refinery maintenance spending
$78.50/bbl
+3.2%
+1.08x
Why It Matters
Oil prices are the #1 driver of refinery maintenance spending
When oil is profitable ($60+/bbl), refiners invest in maintenance and upgrades. Below $50, they defer discretionary work. Current $78 level signals healthy maintenance budgets.
Business Impact: Every $10/bbl increase correlates to ~5% increase in Gulf Coast scaffolding demand
What It Measures
West Texas Intermediate benchmark - US oil price reference
WTI is the primary US crude benchmark. We track daily closes and 30-day moving averages to filter noise.
Daily Close 30-Day MA YoY Change Futures Curve
How It Works
Daily price feed converted to regional growth factors
We map oil price ranges to demand multipliers: <$50 = 0.85x, $50-70 = 1.0x, $70-90 = 1.08x, >$90 = 1.15x. Applied to Gulf and West region forecasts.
Source: EIA / Market Data APIs Frequency: Daily Integration: Multiplicative factor on regional base forecasts
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Current level ($78) signals healthy demand - position inventory for Gulf turnaround season
Risk if Ignored
Oil price crash would require rapid forecast adjustment
Gulf West SCAFFOLDING INSULATION
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) NAT_GAS
Low gas prices = more LNG exports = more terminal construction
$2.85/MMBtu
-5.1%
0.95x
Why It Matters
Low gas prices = more LNG exports = more terminal construction
Counterintuitively, low US gas prices drive LNG export economics, spurring new terminal construction. High prices reduce export margins and slow new projects.
Business Impact: Sub-$3 gas supports $5B+ in active Gulf Coast LNG construction
What It Measures
Henry Hub spot price - US natural gas benchmark
Henry Hub in Louisiana is the primary US gas trading point. Price signals both domestic demand and export economics.
Spot Price Futures Curve Storage Levels Export Volumes
How It Works
Price triggers for LNG project economics
We track gas-to-oil price ratios and compare to LNG project breakeven thresholds. Current levels support all announced Gulf projects.
Source: EIA / CME Data Frequency: Daily Integration: Influences megaproject timing assumptions
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Low gas prices are bullish for Gulf LNG - maintain elevated forecasts
Risk if Ignored
Price spike above $4.50 would threaten export project economics
Gulf SCAFFOLDING FORMING
Steel Price Index (HRC) STEEL_HRC
Steel costs directly impact equipment replacement and new capacity decisions
$680/ton
+8.5%
0.96x
Why It Matters
Steel costs directly impact equipment replacement and new capacity decisions
Scaffolding is steel-intensive. When HRC prices spike, we may defer fleet expansion. Customers may also delay projects due to overall construction cost increases.
Business Impact: Steel price increases above $800/ton historically reduce industrial construction starts by 5-8%
What It Measures
Hot Rolled Coil steel - primary scaffolding material input
HRC is the base steel product for scaffolding manufacturing. We track Midwest domestic prices as the relevant benchmark.
Midwest HRC Price Import Prices Mill Lead Times Scrap Prices
How It Works
Cost-push demand adjustment for high steel periods
Steel above $750/ton triggers -4% demand adjustment assumption. We also flag potential rental rate increase opportunities.
Source: Platts / AMM Steel Frequency: Weekly Integration: Demand dampener in high-cost environments
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Steel at $680 is elevated but manageable - monitor for $750+ breakpoint
Risk if Ignored
Continued steel inflation may require rental rate adjustments
All SCAFFOLDING SHORING FORMING
Refinery Utilization Rate REF_UTIL
High utilization = turnarounds coming = peak scaffolding demand
92.4%
+1.8%
+1.12x
Why It Matters
High utilization = turnarounds coming = peak scaffolding demand
Refineries running at 90%+ utilization are maximizing throughput. This means deferred maintenance and upcoming turnaround windows - our highest-demand periods.
Business Impact: Q2/Q3 turnaround season at 90%+ utilization = 20-30% demand spike in Gulf yards
What It Measures
US refinery capacity utilization percentage
Weekly EIA report showing % of operable capacity in use. High rates signal strong demand and limited turnaround windows.
Weekly Utilization % Regional Breakdown YoY Comparison Seasonal Pattern
How It Works
Utilization-based turnaround season intensity model
We model turnaround demand intensity based on utilization entering Q2. 92%+ entering March = intense season. Applied as multiplier to Gulf/Midwest forecasts.
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Frequency: Weekly (Wednesday release) Integration: Seasonal adjustment factor for industrial scaffolding
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
92.4% utilization entering Q2 signals STRONG turnaround season - max inventory positioning
Risk if Ignored
Underestimating turnaround demand = lost revenue at premium rates
Gulf Midwest SCAFFOLDING INSULATION COATINGS

Megaprojects

Large-scale construction projects driving regional demand

4 signals
Megaprojects ($500M+) create sustained, predictable demand for 2-5 years. Winning a megaproject contract can transform a yard's utilization. Missing one means watching competitors grow.
Where are the big projects and are we positioned to capture them?
Data Center Construction DC_CONST
Data centers are the fastest-growing construction segment in the US
$28B pipeline
+45%
+1.25x
Why It Matters
Data centers are the fastest-growing construction segment in the US
AI/cloud demand is driving unprecedented data center construction. Microsoft, Google, AWS, and Meta are each spending $10B+ annually. These are multi-year, scaffolding-intensive projects.
Business Impact: Data center work commands 15-20% premium rates due to security/quality requirements
What It Measures
Hyperscale data center projects >$500M
We track announced and under-construction data centers by location, size, and timeline. Focus on hyperscale (100MW+) facilities.
Project Name Owner Location Capacity (MW) Construction Phase Completion Date
How It Works
Project tracking database + regional demand modeling
We maintain a megaproject database from industry reports and news. Projects are mapped to yards by proximity and converted to monthly scaffolding demand estimates.
Source: Industry reports, news, FERC filings Frequency: Monthly Integration: Project-specific demand overlaid on regional forecasts
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Northern Virginia and Texas are hotspots - ensure yard capacity and sales coverage
Risk if Ignored
Competitors capturing data center contracts = multi-year revenue loss
West Northeast Southeast SCAFFOLDING SAFETY
CHIPS Act Projects CHIPS_FAB
CHIPS Act is creating $200B+ in semiconductor fab construction
12 active projects
+200%
+1.35x
Why It Matters
CHIPS Act is creating $200B+ in semiconductor fab construction
Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and Micron are building massive fabs in Arizona, Ohio, and Texas. These are the most complex construction projects in the US - extremely scaffolding-intensive.
Business Impact: Single fab project can generate $10-20M in scaffolding revenue over 3-4 year construction period
What It Measures
CHIPS Act funded semiconductor fabrication facilities
We track all announced fab projects: location, investment amount, construction timeline, and CHIPS Act funding status.
Project Company Location Investment ($B) CHIPS Funding Construction Start Completion
How It Works
Project-by-project demand modeling with phase timing
Fab construction follows predictable phases. We model scaffolding demand by phase (site prep → structure → cleanroom → equipment) and map to monthly forecasts.
Source: CHIPS Program Office, company announcements Frequency: Monthly Integration: Phase-based demand curves added to regional forecasts
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Arizona and Ohio are priority markets - Intel and TSMC projects are transformational
Risk if Ignored
CHIPS projects are won 18-24 months before construction - act now
West Southwest SCAFFOLDING FORMING SAFETY
LNG Terminal Construction LNG_TERM
US LNG exports are booming - every new terminal is a multi-billion dollar project
8 projects
0%
+1.15x
Why It Matters
US LNG exports are booming - every new terminal is a multi-billion dollar project
US has become world's largest LNG exporter. New terminals and expansions on the Gulf Coast create sustained industrial construction demand for 3-5 years per project.
Business Impact: LNG projects are our highest-margin industrial work - complex, long-duration, premium rates
What It Measures
LNG export terminals under construction or approved
We track FERC-approved and under-construction LNG facilities. Key projects: Golden Pass, Plaquemines, Rio Grande, Port Arthur expansion.
Terminal Name Location Capacity (MTPA) Investment Construction Phase Target Completion
How It Works
FERC filings + direct project intelligence
LNG projects require FERC approval - public filings provide construction timelines. We supplement with direct customer intelligence on scaffolding requirements.
Source: FERC eLibrary, customer relationships Frequency: Monthly Integration: Project-specific demand in Gulf Coast forecasts
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
8 active projects = sustained Gulf demand through 2028. Maintain elevated inventory.
Risk if Ignored
LNG customers require reliable partners - capacity constraints lose long-term relationships
Gulf SCAFFOLDING INSULATION COATINGS
EV Battery Plants EV_BATTERY
IRA-driven battery plant construction is reshaping Southeast/Midwest industrial markets
15 plants announced
+85%
+1.18x
Why It Matters
IRA-driven battery plant construction is reshaping Southeast/Midwest industrial markets
Tesla, Ford, GM, and Korean/Japanese battery makers are building gigafactories across the US. These are large, fast-tracked projects with aggressive timelines.
Business Impact: Battery plants are a new market segment - opportunity to establish relationships with EV supply chain
What It Measures
EV battery manufacturing facilities >$1B investment
We track announced battery/gigafactory projects by OEM, location, capacity, and timeline. Focus on IRA-eligible domestic manufacturing.
Project OEM/JV Location Capacity (GWh) Investment Construction Start
How It Works
Project tracking with construction phase modeling
Battery plants follow accelerated construction schedules. We model demand curves based on project announcements and adjust for typical delays.
Source: OEM announcements, DOE loan program Frequency: Monthly Integration: Regional demand overlay for Southeast/Midwest
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee are hotspots - ensure sales coverage and yard capacity
Risk if Ignored
Missing EV wave = missing next decade of industrial growth
Southeast Midwest SCAFFOLDING FORMING

Trade & Tariffs

Trade policy impacts on costs and supply chain

2 signals
Trade policy directly impacts scaffolding costs (steel tariffs) and customer investment decisions (reshoring). Policy shifts create both risks and opportunities.
How are trade policies affecting our costs and customer demand?
Steel Tariffs (Section 232) TARIFF_STEEL
Steel tariffs raise equipment costs but also drive domestic manufacturing investment
25% tariff
0%
0.98x
Why It Matters
Steel tariffs raise equipment costs but also drive domestic manufacturing investment
Section 232 tariffs add 25% to imported steel costs. This increases scaffolding replacement costs but also drives reshoring of manufacturing - creating construction demand.
Business Impact: Net effect is slightly negative on demand (-2%) but positive on reshoring pipeline
What It Measures
Section 232 national security tariffs on steel imports
We track tariff rates, exemption status, and policy signals from USTR. Focus on any changes that would shift cost structures.
Tariff Rate Exemption Status Policy Signals Import Volumes
How It Works
Policy monitoring with cost-impact modeling
We model tariff cost pass-through to equipment prices and customer project economics. Changes trigger forecast adjustments.
Source: USTR, ITC, trade publications Frequency: Ad-hoc (policy changes) Integration: Cost adjustment factor + reshoring demand signal
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Tariffs stable at 25% - baked into current pricing. Monitor for policy shifts.
Risk if Ignored
Surprise tariff changes can swing costs and project economics rapidly
All SCAFFOLDING SHORING
China Trade Tariffs TARIFF_CHINA
Trade tensions are accelerating US manufacturing reshoring
Active
+20%
+1.05x
Why It Matters
Trade tensions are accelerating US manufacturing reshoring
Companies are moving production from China to the US to avoid tariff risk and supply chain disruption. Each new factory is a construction opportunity.
Business Impact: Reshoring has added ~$50B annually in US manufacturing construction
What It Measures
US-China tariff levels and manufacturing reshoring trends
We track tariff changes, reshoring announcements, and FDI flows. Increasing tensions = more domestic investment.
Tariff Changes Reshoring Announcements FDI Inflows Manufacturing Construction Spending
How It Works
Policy monitoring + reshoring project tracking
We maintain a reshoring project database and model the construction demand impact by region. Trade tensions are a leading indicator.
Source: USTR, Reshoring Initiative, company announcements Frequency: Ad-hoc Integration: Reshoring demand overlay on regional forecasts
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Trade tensions remain elevated - reshoring tailwind continues. Position for manufacturing construction.
Risk if Ignored
Trade de-escalation would slow reshoring (unlikely near-term)
All All

Infrastructure Spending

Government infrastructure investment programs

2 signals
Federal infrastructure spending creates a predictable, multi-year demand floor. Unlike private sector, government projects are less sensitive to economic cycles.
What infrastructure spending is flowing to our markets?
IIJA Infrastructure Bill IIJA
IIJA is the largest infrastructure investment in US history - 5 years of guaranteed spending
$89B awarded
+35%
+1.15x
Why It Matters
IIJA is the largest infrastructure investment in US history - 5 years of guaranteed spending
$1.2 trillion over 5 years for roads, bridges, transit, water, and broadband. This creates a sustained demand floor regardless of private sector cycles.
Business Impact: IIJA adds ~$50B/year in addressable construction spending through 2027
What It Measures
IIJA funding awards and project pipeline by category
We track IIJA funding awards by state and category. Focus on bridge, highway, and water infrastructure most relevant to our equipment.
Total Awarded By State By Category Project Pipeline Award Velocity
How It Works
Federal award tracking + state DOT project databases
We pull IIJA award data from USAspending.gov and supplement with state DOT project lettings. Projects are mapped to regional demand forecasts.
Source: USAspending.gov, DOT, state agencies Frequency: Quarterly Integration: Infrastructure baseline added to all regional forecasts
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
$89B awarded through Q1 2026 - spending is accelerating. Infrastructure is a reliable demand floor.
Risk if Ignored
Infrastructure spending is reliable but competitive - must win share proactively
All SCAFFOLDING FORMING SHORING
Bridge & Highway Repairs BRIDGE_HWY
Aging bridge infrastructure requires decades of repair work
$12B/year
+5%
+1.08x
Why It Matters
Aging bridge infrastructure requires decades of repair work
42% of US bridges are 50+ years old. IIJA dedicates $40B specifically to bridge repair and replacement. This is steady, predictable demand for forming and shoring.
Business Impact: Bridge work is high-margin, technical work with repeat customers (state DOTs)
What It Measures
Federal bridge program funding and state DOT project pipelines
We track Bridge Investment Program awards and state DOT bridge project lettings. Northeast and Midwest have oldest bridge inventory.
Federal Awards State Match Project Lettings Bridge Conditions Priority Lists
How It Works
FHWA data + state DOT bid letting calendars
We pull bridge program data from FHWA and track state DOT bid calendars. Upcoming lettings are converted to demand forecasts by region.
Source: FHWA Bridge Investment Program, state DOTs Frequency: Monthly Integration: Bridge/highway overlay on Northeast/Midwest forecasts
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Northeast and Midwest bridge work is steady - maintain relationships with state DOTs.
Risk if Ignored
Bridge work is competitive but sticky - losing DOT relationships is costly
Northeast Midwest FORMING SHORING

Geopolitical & Supply Chain

Global events affecting energy and supply chains

2 signals
Global disruptions can rapidly shift energy prices and supply chain costs. We monitor these as risk factors that may require rapid forecast adjustments.
What global events could disrupt our demand or supply?
Geopolitical Risk Index GEO_RISK
Geopolitical conflicts can spike energy prices and accelerate domestic investment
Elevated
0%
+1.02x
Why It Matters
Geopolitical conflicts can spike energy prices and accelerate domestic investment
Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine war, and China-Taiwan risks all affect energy markets and supply chain thinking. Elevated risk generally benefits domestic energy/manufacturing.
Business Impact: Energy price spikes favor Gulf Coast industrial demand; supply chain risk favors reshoring
What It Measures
Composite geopolitical risk assessment for energy/supply chain
We track key geopolitical flashpoints and their potential impact on oil prices, gas supply, and supply chain resilience thinking.
Middle East Tensions Russia-Ukraine China-Taiwan Red Sea Shipping Energy Implications
How It Works
News monitoring + scenario modeling
We maintain scenario models for key geopolitical events (e.g., Strait of Hormuz disruption = $20+ oil spike). Events trigger scenario activation.
Source: News feeds, expert analysis Frequency: Daily monitoring Integration: Scenario triggers for rapid forecast adjustment
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Risk elevated but stable - no action required. Maintain scenario playbooks.
Risk if Ignored
Major geopolitical event requires rapid forecast/pricing response
Gulf SCAFFOLDING INSULATION
Supply Chain Disruption SUPPLY_CHAIN
Supply chain normalization removes constraints but reduces urgency
Moderate
-15%
1.00x
Why It Matters
Supply chain normalization removes constraints but reduces urgency
Post-COVID supply chain stress is easing. This is good for equipment availability but may reduce customer urgency to order ahead.
Business Impact: Normalized supply chains = return to normal ordering patterns, less panic buying
What It Measures
Supply chain stress indicators (shipping, lead times, inventory levels)
We track container shipping rates, steel mill lead times, and industry inventory levels as supply chain health indicators.
Container Rates Steel Lead Times Industry Inventory Supplier Reliability
How It Works
Supply chain indices mapped to demand timing adjustments
High stress = customers order further ahead (pull-forward). Low stress = normal ordering patterns. We adjust demand timing accordingly.
Source: Drewry, steel mills, industry surveys Frequency: Weekly Integration: Demand timing adjustment (not level)
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
Supply chains normalizing - expect return to normal ordering patterns. Less pull-forward.
Risk if Ignored
New disruption (e.g., Red Sea) would require rapid adjustment
All All

Construction Indices

Industry-wide construction activity metrics

3 signals
Macro construction indices provide leading and coincident indicators of overall industry health. They contextualize our company-specific signals within broader trends.
Is the overall construction market growing, stable, or contracting?
Nonresidential Construction Spending CONST_NONRES
Nonresidential construction spending is the broadest measure of our addressable market
+4.2% YoY
+4.2%
+1.04x
Why It Matters
Nonresidential construction spending is the broadest measure of our addressable market
Census Bureau data covers all nonresidential construction: industrial, commercial, infrastructure. YoY growth rates signal overall market direction.
Business Impact: Our revenue historically correlates ~0.8 with nonresidential construction spending
What It Measures
Census Bureau monthly construction spending (nonresidential)
Total nonresidential construction spending in billions, broken down by manufacturing, power, commercial, and infrastructure.
Total Spending Manufacturing Power Commercial Infrastructure MoM/YoY Change
How It Works
Macro growth rate applied as baseline adjustment
We use YoY growth rate as a baseline adjustment to all forecasts. +4% market growth = +4% baseline assumption before other factors.
Source: Census Bureau Construction Spending Frequency: Monthly (first business day) Integration: Baseline growth rate for all forecasts
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
+4.2% YoY is healthy growth - market conditions supportive. No defensive adjustments needed.
Risk if Ignored
Missing market turn (contraction) would leave forecasts too high
All All
ABI Architecture Billings ABI
ABI is a 9-12 month leading indicator of construction activity
51.2
+2.1%
+1.03x
Why It Matters
ABI is a 9-12 month leading indicator of construction activity
Architecture billings precede construction starts by 9-12 months. ABI above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. Current 51.2 signals continued growth.
Business Impact: ABI has predicted 6 of last 7 construction downturns with 9-month lead time
What It Measures
AIA Architecture Billings Index (diffusion index)
Monthly survey of architecture firms. Index above 50 = more firms seeing billings growth than decline.
Overall Index Commercial/Industrial Institutional Residential Regional Breakdown
How It Works
Leading indicator for 9-12 month forward outlook
We map ABI to construction activity 9-12 months forward. Persistent ABI <47 triggers forecast downgrades; >53 triggers upgrades.
Source: American Institute of Architects Frequency: Monthly Integration: Forward-looking growth rate adjustment
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
ABI 51.2 signals continued expansion through Q1 2027. No downturn warning.
Risk if Ignored
ABI downturn would need 3+ months of <47 readings to trigger concern
All All
Dodge Construction Starts DODGE_STARTS
Dodge tracks actual project starts - real-time construction pipeline
$42B (monthly)
+1.5%
+1.02x
Why It Matters
Dodge tracks actual project starts - real-time construction pipeline
Unlike permits or spending, Dodge tracks when shovels hit the ground. This is the most current measure of construction project initiation.
Business Impact: Dodge starts typically convert to equipment demand 3-6 months later
What It Measures
Dodge Data & Analytics monthly construction starts value
Total value of construction projects starting each month, broken down by segment and region.
Total Starts Nonresidential Manufacturing Infrastructure Regional Data
How It Works
Starts value mapped to near-term demand adjustment
We compare Dodge starts to historical levels. Above-average starts = demand upgrade. Below-average = downgrade. 3-6 month impact window.
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics Frequency: Monthly Integration: Near-term (3-6 month) demand adjustment
So What - Action Required
Recommended Action
$42B monthly starts is solid - slightly above historical average. Demand outlook positive.
Risk if Ignored
Starts decline would signal demand softening 3-6 months out
All All

How Signals Feed Into Forecasts

1

Signal Collection

Internal signals (BoM, CPQ, Historical) are collected from company databases. External signals are fetched from market data APIs and web sources.

2

Priority Weighting

Deterministic signals (committed demand) get highest weight. Pipeline signals are probability-weighted. External signals become growth factors.

3

Model Ensemble

8 forecasting models compete per SKU x Yard combination. Best model selected based on historical MAPE. Includes ARIMA, ETS, XGBoost, LightGBM.

4

Reconciliation

MinTrace reconciliation ensures forecasts are coherent across both organizational (Division→Yard) and product (Family→SKU) hierarchies.

BoM / CPQ
→
Historical
→
Pipeline
+
External
→
GRIM Engine
→
Forecasts

Understanding Growth Factors

How external signals modify your base forecasts

1.15x
Positive Impact
Base forecast of 100 units becomes 115 units.
Example: Data center boom in Virginia
1.00x
Neutral / Stable
No adjustment to base forecast.
Example: Normal market conditions
0.92x
Negative Impact
Base forecast of 100 units becomes 92 units.
Example: Steel tariff cost increase